By Karen Rubin, Travel Features Syndicate, goingplacesfarandnear.com
The holiday season is upon us and according to AAA, more than 55 million Americans are forecast to make moves over the holidays with most of those travelers heading 50 miles or more from home for Thanksgiving – a 2.3% increase on last year and the third highest forecast since 2000.
The American Hotel & Lodging Association is also predicting a return to pre-pandemic levels of hotel stays for the holidays. Its survey found that 32% of Americans are likely to travel overnight for Thanksgiving, up from 28% a year earlier, while 34% are likely to travel overnight for Christmas, up from 31% last year. Meanwhile, 37% of Americans said they were likely to travel overnight for leisure during the last three months of 2023. The survey also found that travel attitudes have largely returned to pre-pandemic norms – 71% of Americans now say their likelihood of staying in hotels is the same as prior to the pandemic.
With that in mind, here are some forecasts and tips on navigating travel from experts Laura Lindsay, Travel Trends Expert at Skyscanner; Ludwig Schoenack, Co-Founder of Kyte, a rental car company that delivers the car to you where and when you need it; and insight from Advantage Rent-A-Car.
Skyscanner’s Laura Lindsay
Are you seeing any new trends this year with Thanksgiving and December holiday airfares? (I know last year there seemed to be a lot of last-minute deals available)
Knowing when to book travel has become trickier since the pandemic as airfare algorithms no longer operate in the same way. So, while it used to be as easy as scheduling a certain number of weeks out — or aiming for shoulder season — the air travel landscape has changed. The pandemic shifted how airlines worked their pricing because seasonality fell by the wayside. In the wake of the pandemic, restrictions lifting became the biggest determinant for demand, rather than seasonality. Even though we are a few years out of the pandemic, the landscape has not returned to normal, and airlines can no longer accurately forecast purchasing trends based on seasonality. This is due to many factors, including hybrid work schedules affording travelers more flexibility when they are flying, making it harder to predict when travel will be in higher demand.
What’s the best time frame to buy flights for Thanksgiving 2023 and get a decent deal?
- The best time to book your Thanksgiving flight is right now!
- Again, searching by multiple dates is one of your best chances of finding a bargain. Flight prices are all based on supply and demand. Because some dates are more popular than others, prices will vary. Skyscanner’s ‘whole month’ search tool allows you to see cheap flights at a glance and pick the right deal for you. Consider traveling a day before or a day after your original departure dates, as flying on less popular days of the week can be cheaper.
- Domestic airfares are also trending down right now. So, for anyone staying in the U.S. to celebrate Thanksgiving and in search of the best travel deal, strike now before the airfares climb back up the closer we get to high-demand travel holidays and weekends.
- See when’s best to book at a glance:
- To beat the crowds and get the best flights at the best prices, you’ll want to use our month view feature to see all the options available to you right now. Flights sell fast at this time of year, and with prices predicted to rise, locking down your preferred dates early is the smart move.
- Track prices to get a great deal
- Like prepping the perfect turkey feast, when it comes to getting the best price, timing is everything. Skyscanner’s Price Alerts feature keeps tabs on cost changes for your saved routes. So, sit back. Relax. We’ll let you know when it’s time to book the right flight at the right price.
When should travelers buy their flights for Christmas/Hanukkah/New Years?
- According to Skyscanner data, the best time to buy a Christmas flight is between the weeks of 10/8-11/19. Booking during this time period could save you an estimated 3% on your Christmas flights. Last-minute flights a week before Christmas are 9% above average.
- Travelers should purchase their flights for the holidays as soon as possible. On Skyscanner, you have the option of searching by multiple dates – which is one of the best chances to find a bargain flight. So instead of flying out the day before Christmas or New Years Eve, if you fly out the day of, you can find cheaper flights.
- Flight prices are all based on supply and demand. Because some dates are more popular than others, prices will vary. Skyscanner’s ‘whole month’ search tool allows you to see cheap flights at a glance and pick the right deal for you. Consider traveling a day before or a day after your original departure dates, as flying on less popular days of the week can be cheaper.
- Looking at average monthly fares for 2022 and 2023, booking travel either far in advance (12 months) or 2 months prior are the lowest
Is it possible for travelers to get a good deal on any international flights for Thanksgiving? Yes! There are great prices on airfares to Mexico from October through December, and these months are also a particularly intriguing time to visit.
Live Pricing to International Locations in November from New York City (one-way flight)
- November 24th from NYC to Nassau, Bahamas – $68
- November 24th from NYC to Paris, France – $132
- November 24th from NYC to San Jose, Costa Rica – $140
Travelers might consider traveling internationally during Thanksgiving instead of Christmas or New Year’s. Because Thanksgiving is a U.S. holiday, there’s usually less demand to fly abroad since most people fly domestically for the holiday.
Are there certain travel days around Thanksgiving and in December when it might be cheaper to fly?
- Those willing to cut it close will find traveling the day of a holiday can yield better deals. For example, traveling on Christmas Eve or Christmas day itself will always be cheaper since most people want to arrive earlier, travel demand is higher leading up to the holiday.
Additional tips + tricks to consider when traveling this holiday:
- Consider Everywhere: An ‘Everywhere’ search on Skyscanner is a great starting point for your next break away. For anyone not going home for the holidays, but still getting away during the holiday season, the ‘Everywhere’ search is a great way to find the best deals out there and discover a new destination. Ordered by lowest to highest price from your departure airport to destinations around the globe, an ‘Everywhere’ search can inspire you to go somewhere you’ve never been before, and for a lower price than many traditional destinations.
- Mix & Match to save $: Being flexible in mix and matching the airlines you choose to fly with can seriously cut costs. Fares don’t have to be booked as returns, look at flying out with one airline and back with another or out of one airport and back into another. Comparing and contrasting dates, providers, departure airports and destinations will enable you to find the best deal available for your needs. Skyscanner gives travelers the option to include ‘nearby airports’ in flight searches so you don’t have to search for fares one at a time. You can also do a ‘multi-city’ search if your journey involves travel in-between flights or multiple flights.
- Flex those dates: Searching by multiple dates is one of your best chances of a finding bargain. Flight prices are all based on supply and demand. Because some dates are more popular than others, prices will vary. Skyscanner’s ‘whole month’ search tool allows you to see cheap flights at a glance and pick the right deal for you. Consider traveling a day before or a day after your original departure dates, as flying on less popular days of the week can be cheaper.
- Finding the best time to book: While airfare is constantly changing, Skyscanner data from millions of flight bookings reveals the best time to book flights from the US for the cheapest price is typically 30 weeks before your departure, as well as Tuesdays and Saturdays. Our general advice is to start searching for flights early and to set up a Price Alert so that you’re the first to know when discounts or new routes are added. Also, our Savings Generator can help you save on flights to top destinations throughout the year by sharing how far in advance you should book and the cheapest day of the week to travel.
- For each route, the best day to book will be different, and it’s worth checking a few dates for travel if you can be flexible. For example, it’s cheapest to fly from Los Angeles to Athens on a Monday, and best to book 19 weeks ahead. However, if you’re departing from New York and traveling to Oslo, the cheapest day to fly is Tuesday and the best time to book is 10 weeks ahead.
- Supply and demand are the main drivers of price, and this is why booking as early as possible is usually a good way to get the best deal, as this is when there is most availability and prices are low to encourage bookings. Prices then rise as seats fill and demand begins to outweigh supply.
- Flight prices evolve as airlines track interest in routes and add capacity to meet demand, allowing them to fly at scale to the most popular destinations. A route which may be close to being sold out might be allocated more capacity (flights or seats) nearer to departure and this often drives the price back down for a time as the balance between supply and demand shifts back in favor of the passenger.
Kyte’s Ludwig Schoenack
What is holiday travel looking like in the rental car space for Thanksgiving/Christmas?
We see the most rental car bookings of the holiday season made for Thanksgiving. Number of bookings created typically spikes on the week of Nov 13.,” says Ludwig Schoenack, Co-Founder at Kyte. “These bookings are typically made for the coming week (Thanksgiving week). The length of bookings made are also the longest for thanksgiving, compared to Christmas and New Years. Travelers are looking to reconnect with family and friends and make the most of the holiday season, which is driving an uptick in demand for rental cars. People are opting for the flexibility and convenience that rental cars offer, enabling them to explore new destinations or visit loved ones with ease.
Are things more expensive/less expensive than last year?
It is likely that holiday travel bookings for rental cars will be less expensive compared to last year. The substantial increases in rental car prices experienced recently, which resulted in a 50% cost increase since 2019, were primarily driven by a unique set of circumstances related to the COVID-19 pandemic. These circumstances included a surge in travel demand after the pandemic and a shortage of new cars due to production disruptions during the pandemic. There is an anticipation of a “reversion to the mean” or a return to normal pricing trends, as the travel industry moves past the phase of “revenge travel” and begins to settle into a more typical pattern. This suggests that rental car prices are more likely to stabilize and align with historical year-over-year pricing.
Are there any trends to note as we look to this holiday season in travel?
Holiday travel bookings, particularly for Thanksgiving week, typically sees a significant spike during the week of November 13. This heightened demand may lead to a temporary increase in pricing, but it’s also worth mentioning that revenue per day tends to spike across all major cities during this period.
Due to a cut back on revenge travel, it’s likely that prices might dip below averages seen in 2018 and 2019. If your budget and time allows for it, 2023 could be a fantastic year to take a family trip this holiday season!
Advantage Car Rental
What is holiday travel looking like in the rental car space for Thanksgiving/Christmas?
- Holiday travel from all reports is trending stronger in 2023 than it was in 2022 – the cost of living shifts are affecting consumer priorities, but travel demand remains high. These shifts are causing advanced bookings for car rentals to increase, indicating consumers are planning ahead this holiday season.
- According to research by Civic Science, 62% of travelers plan to travel by car during the 2023 holiday season (Thanksgiving – New Years)
- Our data at Advantage indicates that Thanksgiving travelers are looking for an average of 5-day rentals to extend their Thanksgiving holiday into a long weekend. Christmas travelers will attract the highest volume of travelers. From our booked reservation data, Christmas travelers are also planning trips with a 5–6-day rental length. Christmas Eve and New Years Eve falling on a weekend allows travelers to extend their trips over long weekends. The peak travel days over the Christmas period will be on 12/22, 12/23 and 12/30.
Are things more expensive/less expensive than last year?
- Travel costs are rising that also is causing consumers to look for value in customer experience. With that in mind, Advantage is prioritizing a person customer experience for the 2023 holiday travel season. Thanksgiving pricing is down to 2022 by approximately 17%, allowing consumers to feel a little financial relief if they are planning on traveling for Thanksgiving. Christmas pricing is currently in line with 2022.
Are there any trends to note as we look towards the holiday season in travel.
- The fact that advanced bookings for car rentals are on the rise suggests that consumers are planning their trips well in advance, possibly to secure availability and favorable prices.
- Orlando and Las Vegas continue to be in the top 5 most searched pickup airports for holiday travel. Book early in these destinations to ensure car rental availability at the best value.
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